Welcome traders to yet another AspireFX blog, today we’ll be looking at USDCAD. Since we recently had USOIL closing above $40 on the daily time frame, let us look at what affect that has had on USDCAD.
Looking at USDCAD on the 4 hour time frame, can see that we are currently in a rising wedge, finding resistance off of the descending trend line and more recently finding support off of the ascending trend line. We also have an inverse head and shoulder pattern illustrated by the ellipses which lines up perfectly with the second touch off of the ascending trend line.
On the 1 hour time frame we are currently pushing towards the descending trend line. We’ve had two rejections off of the 61.8, currently forming a doji showing indecision in the market. If price does push through the 61.8, the 78.6 and another rejection off of the trend line would confirm further downside movement.
With USDCAD and USOIL being pairs that correlate closely it will be important to look out for whether or not USOIL can again close above $40 on the daily time frame. Yesterday, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock came out worse than expected which is also why we saw a push to the upside on USDCAD. The Crude Oil Inventories data coming out later today will be a crucial news event to consider when looking for a trade setup on this pair. If we see another worse than expected data release we could see USDCAD push up to the ascending trend line and possibly through it, depending on how bad the news release is. From an OPEC perspective there was a meeting held over the weekend where it was said that production cuts will be lowered to 7.7 million barrels per day from August and stay at that level up until December. This is a huge positive for the oil market as it means the current productions cuts are having the desired affect which can be seen with USOIL on an uptrend as of late.
Remember to trade safe, keeping news events in mind before entering the market and always use the correct risk management. Subscribe to receive notifications as soon as a new blog is uploaded!
What Are Safe Havens? Good day traders and welcome to another blog post by AspireFX. You may have seen or heard the term safe haven before but have yet to understand or fully grasp the concept. It’s especially important to understand the role save havens play when analyzing the market as it can be used as a extra confluence when analyzing and trading certain pairs. A safe haven is an investment that holds it’s value or even increases in value during times of market volatility, while other assets may be losing value. Safe havens offer investors protection against huge market downswings however they may react differently in different market conditions. With the markets being as turbulent as they are because of the worldwide pandemic, let us focus on the most historic save haven, Gold (XAUUSD).
Why is there so much upward momentum? Looking at Gold on the daily time frame we can see that the overall structure is bullish. The first upward pointing arrow shows when China officially announced the coronavirus outbreak. The second upward pointing arrow is showing exactly where price was when the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus a global health emergency. As more coronavirus cases were recorded and reported worldwide, there was a massive push to the upside which saw Gold reach $1700 per ounce for the first time since 2017. This is an example of how investors pump money into safe havens in order to protect their investment portfolio during times of uncertainty. As traders we need to be in tune with where investors are putting their capital in order to profit off of the market. Shortly after we reached the high, there was a major sell off which will be discussed later but from the low of $1450 we recovered fully and went on to record new highs for 2020. Looking at the highlighted region, we can see how the previous level of resistance has now turned into support where price has rejected numerous times, proving that 1700 is still an attractive region for investors to put their money into Gold.
What caused such an abrupt sell off? As mentioned before, safe havens behave differently in different market conditions. Even though the reason for Gold reaching $1700 was mainly because of the coronavirus outbreak and the fears of what the potential impact would be, we still had a major sell off because equity markets (stocks) had taken one of the steepest dips in recent years. Looking at things from an investors point of view, keeping in mind that they hold positions in many different markets, in order for them to cover their losses incurred in the stock market, they had to close out long term safe haven positions in order to prevent their investment portfolio from suffering. Once the stock market stabilized due to monetary policy being implemented, Gold then recovered fully and again began acting as a safe haven once again which is why we are seeing it maintain it’s bullish trend.
A break down: Looking at Gold on the 1 hour time frame starting at June 10, we can see the that there was a lot of sideways movement where we continuously found support around 1710 whilst still obeying the descending trendline. Once we broke out of that area of consolidation, we formed a higher high at 1758, pulled back to the highlighted region which lines up nicely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as previous resistance. We could potentially pull back to the highlighted region again before we see this pair reach 1780 as suggested by the Fibonacci tool. However, if we fall through the highlighted area, we could look at a retest of the trend line for further upside movement.
News: Be on the lookout for any updates regarding newly recorded coronavirus cases which could indicate a possible second wave of coronavirus as countries worldwide begin to ease lock down restrictions. From the dollar perspective, the main news events to lookout for will be the final estimate of the first quarter GDP, the Purchasing Managers Index as well as the PCE Price Index. As always trade safe, ensure you use correct risk management and please subscribe to receive these blog posts instantly.
Welcome back to another blog by AspireFX. Today we’ll be looking at USDJPY and to be more specific we’ll be looking at how pivotal certain key areas between the 108.000 – 106.000 region are when analyzing this pair. There are, of course, outliers as you will see and those are mainly fundamentally driven moves but when within the above mentioned region, it likes to obey certain levels nicely.
Above we can see the daily time frame going back to mid-April. We have the 107.500, 107.000 as well 106.500 region boxed out to illustrate how these levels have provided support and resistance over the last few months, the arrows drawn show that more clearly. 107.500 in particular seems to be a magnet for this pair and if we look at the huge push to the upside labelled outlier, we first consolidated just above 107.500 (May 18 until June 1) until we had a huge wick to the downside to exactly 107.000. Both of these levels provided support before the big move to the upside. From the high around 110.000, price melted through 107.500 and then came up to retest that same level finding resistance before continuing to the downside.
On the 4 hour time frame above we have a more detailed look at how we broke through 107.500 and came up to retest that level multiple times where each time we closed either on or below that region which validated that level as resistance. We, in actual fact, formed a double top on 107.500 which took us further to the downside.
The 1 hour time frame shows us just how strong these levels are. Looking at the highlighted box, which is exactly where we formed the double top on the 4 hour time frame, we can see that price consolidated nicely between 107.500 and 107.000, showing how these levels act as support and resistance on an intra-day level. Placing the Fibonacci tool on the most recent downward leg, we can see how the 61.8 Fibonacci level lines up perfectly with 107.000. We printed an evening star pattern on the 61.8 which took price lower amounting to 40 pips in downside movement.
When looking for setups on USDJPY, keep these key levels in mind when executing trades. Know that price may not always bounce off of these levels and there may be consolidation or false breakouts involved as there are other factors that influence price besides technical analysis. That is why it is always important to take news events into account as well as maintaining sound risk management. As always, trade safely and subscribe to our blog for updates instantly!
Welcome to another blog by AspireFX. Today we’ll be looking at the pound versus the US dollar. We’ll be doing a top down analysis on this pair focusing mainly on the technicals involved.
Looking on the daily time frame, we can see how pivotal 1.24500 level has been over the last few weeks as it has been acting as a major key level shown by the arrows. It provided resistance on two occasions, whilst having two false breakouts to the upside in between. More recently that level of resistance has turned into support after forming a new higher high at 1.27500. We have also rejected the 61.8 Fibonacci level forming a three pin pattern to the upside.
On the 4 hour time frame we can see more clearly how we have been making higher highs and higher lows by looking at the arrows which gives a more clear representation of structure. Since printing the high at 1.27900, we did break structure to the downside but once we rejected the major key level of 1.24500, we then printed a higher high and should now keep an eye out for a potential higher low.
On the 1 hour time frame, we can see how we broke structure back to the upside with a break and retest of the descending trend line. We then formed a double top at the new high which has taken us into an attractive intra-day level of 1.25400. Looking left, we can see a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern coming into play. With the 61.8 Fibonacci level lining up perfectly with the highlighted intra-day level, we could see a further push to the upside however if we break through the highlighted region, look out for the 78.6 for potential reversals.
Looking at the fundamentals, the UK’s Average Earnings index came out 1.3% lower than the previous months data as well as the Unemployment Rate remaining unchanged but looking at the 3M/3M Employment Change, there was an increase of 6 000 people employed. Looking at the latest data that has been released by the US, we had a huge spike in Retail Sales as well as the Core Retail Sales but Industrial Production came out 0.8% lower than expected. The main theme to take into account for this week was the Fed’s announcement to continue implementing monetary policy moving forward where they plan on buying $250 billion worth of corporate bonds which has caused a recovery in the US stock market but is in actual fact a negative in the long run for their economy. Keep an eye out for the UK’s Retail and Core Retail sales being released later in the week, as well as Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
With a few more news events coming into play this week, be extra careful when entering the market, remember to always use the correct risk management and as always, trade safe! Subscribe to our blog to receive these blog posts instantly.
Welcome to another blog by Aspirefx. USDCAD went on to print new lows this past week, closing below 1.34000 a few times which from a technical aspect suggested further downside movement however from a fundamental perspective the fears of the impact the second wave of corona virus are rising as well as the swift implementation of monetary policy by the US government saw USDCAD possibly printing the bottom of the current downtrend. We’ll take a look at the lower time frames to see precisely the influence these aspects had on this pair this week.
On the daily time frame, placing the fib on the latest downside push, the 61.8 fib lines up nicely with the consolidation around 1.37700. If we break through 1.37700, 1.39000 would be the next level to look at for resistance as it lines up with the 78.6 fib perfectly as well as the previous support we had at the highs shown by the highlighted region. As mentioned in previous articles, the correlation between USOIL and this pair is a major factor to consider. With USOIL taking a knock towards the end of last week as fears of the second wave of corona virus heightens, which has seen the demand for oil drop even though supply cuts have continuously been made by OPEC and OPEC+ members.
Looking at the USOIL chart on the daily time frame, we failed to make a new high and rejected the $40 mark, the affect of the corona virus is clear as we can see since then price melted and went on to retest the monthly low around $35 leaving a wick in the highlighted region shown above. Depending on how well OPEC and non-OPEC members are able to comply to the predetermined cuts set out until the end of July, we will either see USOIL bounce or break through the highlighted zone. New reported cases by day in the United States rose from 18 199 on Monday to 24 570 on Friday. By the end of the week, that’s a 35% increase in the total new daily cases. With the second wave of corona virus looming world wide, investors are weary of pumping money into the oil market which obviously has a negative impact on the Canadian dollar as they are one of the biggest reserves of oil in the world. Slowed down economic activity is another factor which has seen oil suffer in recent weeks. This week Thursdays OPEC meeting will be a good indicator of where the oil market will be heading next and will be crucial to pay attention to in order to gain insight into where USDCAD may move to in the coming weeks.
Looking at USDCAD on the 4H time frame, last week we managed to close the gap that was made on March 8 of this year. We printed a double bottom just below the monthly key level of 1.34000 shown by the highlighted box but because we printed a higher low, from a technical perspective further downside movement was negated as you can see with the huge wick that was left to the downside and then the massive bullish pressure seen thereafter. From a fundamental perspective, this can be attributed to the positive news which came out for the dollar last week, namely the interest rates remaining the same, Federal Budget Balance of May coming out better than expected and the Initial Jobless Claims coming out slightly lower than predicted. Adding to the strength of the dollar is the ongoing Quantitative Easing which is being implemented by the US, amounting to $6 trillion tapering over the course of 2020.
On the 1H time frame, once we snapped and retested the trend line, it was confirmed that the bulls are back in control of the market. We went on to create a higher high at 1.36600, pulled back to the 61.8 on the Fibonacci tool creating another higher lower. We currently printed a new high on this time frame, we may see a pull back from this level and then can expect further upside movement heading into this week. Keep an eye out for the US Retail Sales, Industrial Production data, Crude Oil stock report as well as the Fed meeting all taking place this week.
With USDCAD heavily dependent on what happens in the oil market, it is important to follow both pairs in conjunction with each other when looking for trading setups. As always trade safe and subscribe to receive our blog posts instantly.
Welcome back to another blog by AspireFX. Today we’re going to be discussing the importance of having sound psychology especially during these turbulent times. If you are unable to manage yourself and your emotions, you’ll struggle to manage your trades as well. You need to ensure your mind is in gear with the markets otherwise you stand no chance of making consistent profits.
The forex market offers enormous earning potential and appeals extremely well to our innate desire of earning uncapped amounts of money. However, don’t be fooled into thinking trading is easy and that you can millions in minutes right from the beginning. The earning potential of trading forex is something unmatched when compared to other industries but what comes hand in hand with that is the enormous risk you open yourself up to when you let your emotions get the better of you. Being overemotional when trading can lead to clouded judgement which in turn will lead to you creating the incorrect mindset towards the market. Instead of seeing the market for what it truly is, a huge mass of people buying and selling at certain prices which moves up and down like waves in the ocean, you develop certain fantasies about the market based off of the amount of money you want to make or where you are looking for price to go. This is an example of greed, an emotion that all of us have experienced in our lifetime before.
Beginner traders struggle with greed the most. There are multiple errors that you can make which could be detrimental to your trading account. Holding trades for too long because you are waiting for more profits and then watching price reverse and hit stop loss is a mistake amateur traders make often. The market can bounce around from price to price with absolutely no regard for where you are wanting the price to go or how much profit you want to close on. Risking too much capital by entering over leveraged positions will lead to you blowing accounts unnecessarily. Entering multiple trades on multiple pairs is an example of greed as well and we call that over trading. Do not confuse yourself by entering too many setups leaving you with no time to manage your trades effectively.
It’s important to understand that as humans we tend to act out our emotions in the market and if you are not in the correct mindset, it would be beneficial to your trading account to rather stay out of the market and practice patience. Always be aware of what emotions you are feeling when trading, if emotions like greed, fear, gamblers high or overconfidence ever creep in, rather close your trades because even the best trading setups can go against you with a weak psychology. Keep in mind that as traders we are competing against some of the sharpest minds in the world, that’s why it’s essential to keep risk management in mind at all times. As always trade safe and subscribe to receive our blog posts instantly.
Welcome back to another blog by AspireFX. We’ll be taking a look at how GBPAUD has been moving steadily to the downside as confidence returns to the Australian dollar.
Looking at the weekly time frame we can see that the support levels mentioned in the previous GBPAUD article has been completely smashed. There was some indecision with a doji forming just above 1.95000. Price went on to break through that level and tested the next major support at 1.9000 where we had a clean rejection, printing a bearish hammer. Since then, price has continued to move steadily to the downside breaking structure from the week of May 18. Looking left on our charts for the next possible point of support for this pair, it’s evident that 1.8000 will be a major level to consider.
Giving us a clearer picture of how price has been moving to the downside is the 4 hour chart above. We have been trending very nicely to the downside finding some support at 1.85000 where price hovered just above for about a week until we finally broke that support, and continued to make fresh lows. Looking at the highlighted region, we had two drives back into the highlighted region where we can see there was two clean rejections and we started moving towards the next crucial key level at 1.8000.
Looking at the 1 hour chart we can see we found support just above 1.8000 forming a lower high shown by the highlighted region. Since the Westpac Consumer sentiment came out lower than last months data as well as the Australian Home loans data coming out negative, we had a push to the upside. Another fundamental aspect adding to the movement to the upside was announcement by the UK saying they are planning to sell $3 billion of gilt on June 16. The initial reaction for the pound is positive because money will be pumped into their economy but the long term affect will be negative as it proves they are struggling to cover their own debts because of the huge financial knock taken during this global pandemic. We have just reversed off of the 61.8% Fibonacci level, proving the strength of the Aussie dollar.
There are numerous fundamentals coming into play this week. The most noteable being the UK’s GDP, Industrial Production data as well as the Trade balance for April, all of which are coming out June 12. Consider these reports carefully and as always trade safe. Subscribe for instant access to our latest blogs.
Good day and welcome to an update on USDCAD. We’ll start by taking a look at the higher time frames to get a bird’s-eye view of price action to see where exactly the fundamentals have been driving price over the last few months. With USDCAD and USOIL having such a close correlation due to Canada being one of the biggest oil reserves in the world, the latest news regarding oil has had a huge impact on this pair.
Starting on the monthly time frame, looking at how price came up to test the highs of 2016 but ultimately fell short, shows that we are currently in a bearish market. There was a lot of indecision during the month of April as price came up and wicked 1.43000 but managed to close just below the resistance formed at the psychological round number of 1.4000. With OPEC and OPEC+ members beginning talks of cutting oil production in April as well as Canada closing down some of their own oil facilities, it is clear as to why we had indecision in the market during that time, there was uncertainty of whether the proposed production cuts would be followed strictly and also whether the low supply would have the desired effect of boosting the oil economy. The cuts began as of May 1st, and once the oil market began to recover, so did USDCAD. During the month of May, the resistance formed at 1.4000 was confirmed as we broke out above that price, came up to test the highs for a third time and again managed to close bearish for the second consecutive month in a row. With Canada being one of the many OPEC countries to swiftly cut oil production as of May 1st, the slight recovery seen in the oil market during the month of May correlates nicely with this pair.
Now let’s take it down a time frame and look at the weekly chart. We can see that since the start of this month which we are only one week into, we have a had huge amount of bearish pressure where price managed to completely break through 1.37000 and close just above the next major support at 1.34000. A video conference was held by OPEC leaders on June 6, where it was agreed that production cuts will be extended until the end of July and possibly further. Countries who failed to comply with the necessary production cuts have promised to cut production further as well as make up for the extra oil that they have been pumping during last month.
On the daily time frame we can clearly see how price consolidated from the end of March up until the end of May between 1.43000 and 1.38500. We can also see how price slowly started to form a falling wedge where price was making equal lows at the bottom of the range but also consistently made lower highs. On May 26, we had the breakout of the highs and a retest at the bottom of the above mentioned range. June has seen USDCAD push even lower, aiding this move to the downside is the ongoing trade war between the US and China which is having a negative e ffect on the dollar.
On the 1 hour, we opened the week up just above a very important level of support at 1.34000. For USDCAD to maintain this downward trend, 1.34000 will be a key level to break through for us to see further downside movement. Yesterday, the Canadian Housing Starts data came out positive which was followed by a break below 1.34000 but ultimately, it broke back above that level. We could look at the 61.8 on the Fibonacci tool for this pair to gain further downward momentum again but if we break through that level, the next region to look at would be 1.35270 which sits nicely on the 78.6 and will form a double top as well. We can look at this weeks OPEC meetings and Crude Oil reports which will be important in giving us insight into the direction of this pair. When considering the US dollar this upcoming week, the interest rate decision, FOMC meeting as well as CPIs (Consumer Production Index) and PPIs (Producer Price Index) will play an important role in the strengthening or weakening of the dollar.
As always, trade safe and have a fantastic week further. For updates sent directly to your email, subscribe to our blog.
Good day traders and welcome to another breakdown of USDZAR. Today, we’ll be taking a closer look at the fundamentals that coincide with the technicals that has been driving price downward.
On the weekly timeframe, there was an attempt at breaking the previous high of 19.33. A wick was left just short of that high and managed to close with a double top forming around 19.05. We printed a 3-pin pattern which went on to break the area of consolidation(18-19) at the highs. We can attribute this sharp move to the downside to the easing of lockdown regulations as South Africa lowered their restrictions from level 5 to level 4 on the 1st of May. As of today, we have tested the bodily closures from January 2016, which may form support.
Taking a closer look at the daily timeframe, we clearly see how we broke through the area of consolidation and continued to push price lower. As of the 1st of the June, the South African government further lowered lockdown restrictions from level 4 to level 3 which saw 8 million South Africans return to work. More businesses and companies opening nationwide is a huge boost for the economy as you can see with the strengthening of rand.
On the 4 hour timeframe we can see the perfect breakout, 21 May 03:00 (GMT +2) and retest of the consolidation at the highs. Since the start of the month, the rand has gained 840 pips versus the dollar. Added to the strengthening of the rand, the US-China tensions regarding trade seems to be escalating as well as the civil unrest regarding police brutality are both factors that are weighing down heavily on the dollar. Since printing a new low today as well as reaching the highs of January 2016, we may see a pullback before continuing lower. 17.00 will be a crucial level to cross for this retracement to occur.
Looking at the dollar index on the 1 hour, which is a measure of the US dollar’s value relative to the majority of it’s most significant trading partners, we can how since May 25, the dollar index fell 3.5% due to the reasons mentioned above as well as the ongoing impact of the coronavirus. The US-China trade war seems to be reaching boiling point as the Chinese government reportedly told state-owned agricultural firms to stop purchases of US soybeans which is one of the major US agricultural exports to China. This was in retaliation to the tariffs imposed by the US on China on $360bn worth of goods with a tariff of 15%. With less goods being exported by the US, not only to China but globally, we can see it’s having a negative impact on the dollar, aiding the strengthening of the rand in comparison.
Looking at USDZAR on the 1 hour we can see the downward momentum is evident on the lower timeframes as well. We had a clean break of 17, proving that bears are still in control of the market. Plotting the Fibonacci tool, we had a retest of the 17 region as well as a few spinning tops along with a bearish engulfing off the 61.8% level. With the ADP report coming out positive for the dollar, in total there was 2.76 million job losses reported where the expected figure was 9 million. Today’s NFP report will be a crucial factor to consider going into next week.
A longterm perspective on USDZAR is pointing towards a recovery to the levels we were trading at, at the beginning of the year around the 15 mark. If the South African government continues to lower lockdown restrictions, a recovery is a likely outcome. However, there are other factors to consider such as the outcome of the US-China trade war, which could bring positive news for the dollar if some sort of deal is made which would lead to a weakening of the rand in comparison. A strong second wave of coronavirus would have a devastating impact on the South African economy especially because the country’s medical system is not equipped enough to handle a nationwide spread of the virus which would take us right back into the highs.
From a more short term perspective, we could look at the highs of 2019 for a possible reversal around the 15.50 mark. We would however have to wait to see how all the above mentioned factors play out in order to know whether we are seeing a recovery or a pullback on USDZAR. As always trade safe and have a great week further. Subscribe to our blogs for direct access from your email.
Good day and welcome to a recap of the most recent news and price action regarding USOIL. Governments worldwide are in the process of easing lockdown restrictions which is a positive for the oil market. More companies/business will finally be able to operate which will lead to an increase in fuel consumption. Added to this, OPEC and OPEC+ members have began cutting production costs which also is a positive for this market.
Taking a look at the weekly timeframe, we can see that the month of May closed on a bullish note with price slowing down towards the end as we can see with last weeks candle closure. With the new monthly candle opening, we may see a pullback before a continuation into the highs. During the month of May OPEC made a production cut of 5 million barrels per day compared to April, a 5% cut of global supply. They are aiming to further cut production to 10% of global supply this month, looking to further stabilize the oil economy. The direction of the market will hang heavily on the ability of OPEC and OPEC+ members to comply fully to the output curbs and regulations.
On the daily timeframe we can see how strong last weeks close was. On the 29th of May we broke that beforementioned area of consolidation, $30 – $35 and closed with a morning star formation as well as a 3 pin pattern. This weeks Crude Oil Stock and Inventories report will be a key aspect to look out for on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. This will give us more insight into how well OPEC members are complying to the production cuts and whether they can maintain this positive momentum going forward.
On the 1 hour chart we can see exactly how price broke out of the area of consolidation last week Friday, with a strong closing of $35.18. Today, the bears attempted to bring price lower but were not able to keep the price below $35. We had a lovely three pin pattern where we can also see a clear rejection of the area of consolidation as the bulls begin to drive the price upwards from todays low of $34.25. $40.00 will be the next level of resistance.
Once more countries continue to ease lockdown restrictions worldwide, the demand for oil will increase as economic avtivity will begin to return to normal. Added to this, if OPEC and OPEC+ countries continue to comply with production cuts throughout this year and heading into next year, we could see price stabilizing in the near future. The only foreseeable threat to this market is the second wave of the Coronavirus and how badly it will affect us and in turn businesses and companies worldwide. As always, trade safe and have a great week further. Subscribe to our blogs for direct access from your email.