Welcome to another blog by AspireFX. Today we’ll be doing a top down analysis on the Swiss Franc versus the US dollar. With the Swiss Franc being a safe haven currency and there being talk of the dollar weakening in the second quarter, let us look at potential downside movement. With it being a public holiday today in the US, the markets will be slow but let us start off on the daily time frame.
Looking at the daily time frame, we recently broke through the monthly key level of 0.95500 and came up to test that level which then acted as resistance. Plotting the Fibonacci tool, we also had two rejections off of the 61.8 and looking where the take profit targets are we could see a push down to 0.93000. Looking at current price action we printed a doji yesterday and there is a possible 3 pin pattern forming depending how the daily candle closes. Looking at the highlighted region, it’s clear to see that we are currently consolidating between 0.95200 and 0.94350, it will be crucial to break out of this consolidation for further downside movement to continue.
On the 4 hour time frame, we recently had a break out below ascending trend line. The 0.94700 level shown by the highlighted box was support but now has turned into resistance. If this level holds as resistance we could see price close back below the trend line but if we break through this level, the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement will be an attractive level to look at for short positions as it lines up with the top end resistance of the consolidation and we could possibly form a head and shoulder pattern.
On the hourly time frame we can see that the ascending trend line is holding as resistance. The highlighted region also lines up with 61.8 on the lower time frame Fibonacci tool which we have rejected a few times already.
With it being Independence Day in the US, dollar pairs are moving slower than usual and we could look for these setups to play out going into next week. As always, stick to your personal trading plan and use the correct risk management. Hit the follow button to receive notifications on newly released blog posts sent directly to your email!