INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 4 OCTOBER 2021

As we go into Q4 for 2021, the US equities market looks to be shaping up to be a more volatile quarter as there looks to be potential for a sector rotation.

The main focus of investors for the past few weeks has been the ongoing fiscal situation happening in the US alongside data relating to monetary policy. As Democrats look to pass another fiscal stimulus package, investors continue to see this as a positive thing for the future outlook. Supply Chains have slowly come back into regulation following the pandemic which will allow economic data to establish a firm footing once again.

VIX FEAR GAUGE DAILY TIMEFRAME

Although all of this sounds positive, two things to take note of going forward is that of VIX (image above) and the 10 Year US Treasury Yields (image below). With the bullish trending observed in the VIX gauge, we are taking note of potential fear within the market. Said fear is persuading investors to shift their money from risky stocks (Technology) to the “safety” of the US Dollar. In order to do this, they need to sell their stocks in order to acquire Dollars to purchase Treasury Bonds which in turn sends Treasury Yields higher. Higher Yields = Lower evaluations for stocks. And this is how the sector rotation from technology to cyclical stocks begins.

10 YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS

With risk events being the main focus going forward, we have a jam-packed week in terms of fundamentals with US Non-Farm Payrolls being the main thing on everyone’s radar. A lower outcome risks derailing the central bank’s lose policy unwinding. Take note of other events scheduled for this week as investors are still looking for any clues with regards to economic growth as well as employment growth.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NASDAQ technically, this week will be vital as we are currently trading at the 100 Day EMA (black line) which could potentially act as dynamic support going forward. We also have a liquidity zone stemming from Mid June/July around the $14 550 handle which is lining up to act as support as well. Should said levels be broken, NASDAQ’s next target will be the psychological level of $14 000. The 10 Year Treasury Yields look like they’re going to play a role in the future price action of NASDAQ and there are no signs of a proper bullish reversal just yet.

NASDAQ DAILY TIMEFRAME

In terms of the Dow Jones, price is still technically bearish making a series of LLs and LHs over the course of the past few weeks. Should we see the sector rotation occur within the equities market, this could be the catalyst for a switch in the Dow’s trend. At the time of writing though, we are still bearish with downside targets aimed at the psychological level of $34 000. Only a break and closure above the 35k level would interest me in a potential shift in momentum to the upside.

DOW JONES 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

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INDICES MARKET OUTLOOKK – 27 SEPTEMBER 2021

A week of recovery was observed in the US equities market last week with NASDAQ, the Dow Jones and S&P500 managing to close the week out at +0.14%, +0.75 and +0.64% respectively.

Although the Central Bank is gearing towards a reduction in monetary stimulus, the fundamental backdrop of last week seems to be the catalyst of a green week in the US equities market last week with Jerome Powell hinting at asset purchase tapering being completed by the middle of next year mixed with the statements made at the FOMC Meetings which sent stocks rallying as well as the 10 Year Treasury Yields.

10 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS DAILY TIMEFRAME

Looking at risk events for the week ahead, it seems investors will be most interested in speeches from Capitol Hill, which will see Jerome Powell as well as Janet Yellen testify in front of Congress, as they look for clues on inflation and the Central Bank’s view on it. This week also sees PCE data being released which is normally the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. We should see some volatility on Thursday as we see GDP as well as Jobless Claims being released too.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NASDAQ technically, the dip was bought. As highlighted in last week’s blog post, bulls managed to take control around the $14 850 region as price formed a morning star pattern. At the time of writing, price is trading below the Prior Week High which could act as resistance, but with price being as bullish as it is, we will most likely see a break and retest of this level before continuing higher into the $15 500 region. However, one factor to take into account is the rise in 10 Year Yields. A rise in Yields normally results in a dip in the stock market with tech (i.e NASDAQ) being the most sensitive. Should tech take a hit due to yields, bears could be targeting the Prior Week Low where we saw NASDAQ reverse from last week.

NASDAQ DAILY TIMEFRAME

Similar price action on the Dow Jones as we saw bulls take control from the $33 600 region which is a previous level of liquidity. At the time of writing, price is trading around the psychological level of $35 000 which could act as resistance going forward unless it is broken and retested to the upside which would then bring the next level of resistance into play, namely $35 200. Should we have a technical correction occur, we could see the $34 500 level being tested once more before continuing higher.

DOW JONES DAILY TIMEFRAME

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INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 20 SEPTEMBER 2021

BUY THE DIP! Yet another red week within the US indices market as we saw NASDAQ, the Dow Jones and S&P500 closed out the week at -0.97%, -0.42% and -0.97% respectively.

US indices made a valiant effort to try and hold support throughout the course of last week but to no avail as bears came into the market on Friday with continued bearish momentum at the time of writing. The markets seemed to be relatively unphased following weak CPI and Jobless Claims data coming out of the US.

On this week’s docket in terms of risk events, all eyes will be peeled for the FOMC Meetings happening. The Federal Reserve will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss its monetary policy in the midst of a build-up in fundamental anticipation. Investors however seem to be slightly apprehensive towards this as the Fed is known for playing down the demand for tapering of asset purchases. This being said, I would not be surprised if investors position themselves for both ends of the spectrum regardless of what comes out of the FOMC meetings. Should said situation play out, we could see a reduction in liquidity which could cause stocks to sell off before we actually see the dip bought up. Jerome Powell will be speaking on Friday as well which could throw another wrench into the works.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NASDAQ from a technical perspective, we can see how the $15 400 region was holding as support until Friday closed below with a bearing engulfing candlestick. At the time of writing, NAS is falling into zones of high confluence. Price is currently approaching the 61.8% Fib retracement level which lines up our 50 day EMA (red line) as well as with a previous level of resistance turned potential support going forward. Should investors dry some liquidity from the market, we could potentially see dips into our 78.6 Fib level in line with the ascending trendline stemming from lows in July and August as well as the psychological level of $15 000.

NASDAQ DAILY TIMEFRAME

Similarly to NASDAQ, the Dow Jones is also approaching zones of high confluence where we could see an injection of liquidity. Last wee saw the Dow try and hold support on the psychological level of $34 500 to no avail. At the time of writing, price is sitting at a Daily trendline as well as the psychological level of $35 000 in line with our 61.8 Fib retracement level. Should this level not hold, we could see dips into our 78.6 around the $33 500 region. Do not attempt to catch a falling knife. Wait for reversals on the lower timeframe before entering larger positions.

DOW JONES DAILY TIMEFRAME

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GBPAUD – TECHNICAL ENTRIES OVER THE PAST WEEKS

If you’ve been trading GBPAUD the last few weeks you could have potentially made some decent profits swinging it to the downside, and here’s how we did it:

From the 24th – 27th August GA was stuck in consolidation. The way we identify consolidation is by spotting 2 significant highs that are holding as resistance and 2 significant lows that are holding as support. We then highlight the consolidation awaiting a breakout as displayed in the image below. ( 30 min timeframe )

GBPAUD 1ST ENTRY

As displayed in the above image, the advantage of spotting consolidation is when the breakout occurs. More often that not, once the breakout occurs the pair has chosen its direction. Your first entries can be taken on the retest of the consolidation.

Upon monitoring our first position, we noticed GBPAUD was trading in a descending channel. We plotted trendlines to map this out and then gained our second position on the third touch of the descending trendline displayed with a blue arrow on the image below.

GBPAUD 2ND ENTRY

We rode both these positions to their targets of 185 and 155 pips respectively. We did, however, gain one more position.

The final position was taken when we broke out of the descending channel and retested the bottom end of the channel at our phycological level of 1.87500 ( 1.86560 to be exact ). With our target being 1.85700 we gained another 180 pips. This is displayed in the image below with the most recent entry being displayed with a blue arrow.

GBPAUD 3RD ENTRY

At AspireFX we continue to preach sticking to a few pairs and mastering them. Once you’ve got the rhythm of a pair you start to understand it and place positions accordingly resulting in a much more profitable trading journey.

Since the price action displayed we have seen a 200 pip+ relief into the upside. Some key fundaments to look out for when it comes to GA next week are:

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

As always traders, exercise healthy risk management and we hope you have a fantastic trading week ahead. For more updates like the one above, subscribe to our blog for instant updates to your mail or join our Telegram Trading Floor via our website at http://www.aspirefx.co.za.

MARKET UPDATE : CRYPTO FLASH CRASH

Yesterday, we saw a sharp sell off in the crypto markets with a massive leverage wipeout of around $3.5B in liquidations reported, with the real numbers likely being even higher. The flash crash saw BTC & ETH plunge -18.5% and 25% respectively off their recent highs. Over-leveraged traders were punished in the major deleveraging event.

BYBT LIQUIDATIONS

To put the cherry on top, gas fees on the Ethereum network spiked as high as 7000 with the recent NFT drop “The Sevens” making it impossible for many investors to transact. The liquidation cascade and panic to exit markets increased gas further. The gas fees to mint The Sevens was $5000 alone.

The Sevens

NFT’s have been responsible for Ethereum being deflationary as we see massive hype around these projects and their respective derivatives. Below we can see Ethereum’s first deflationary day as burned fees offset the block reward emissions.

The Sevens was responsible for nearly 1300 ETH being burnt yesterday, outpacing the community favourite NFT marketplace, OpenSea.

ULTRASOUNDMONEY

With this being said, OpenSea activity is slowing down, with daily volume dropping 50% since its 29th August high as well as daily transactions dropped roughly 30%. For what it’s worth, volume is still higher than what we saw in the first 2 weeks of August.

FUD OF THE DAY:

Yesterday we saw El Salvador enact the law to make Bitcoin legal tender. Some speculate this was a “buy the rumour, sell the news” event. Others point towards the technical glitches that were experienced with the official digital wallets – that was later resolved. The main point of concern for investors were the IMF stating this adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender would be a inadvisable shortcut & warned it was taking it a step too far. It will be interesting to see how the IMF retaliates, but the fact is, Bitcoin is now legal tender in El Salvador and they have acquired 550 BTC.

NAYIB BUKELE, PRESIDENT OF EL SALVADOR

According to a 21 post thread by Brian Armstrong, Co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, the SEC has threatened to sue Coinbase over a new lending program which was set to release soon, stating it is a security.

BRIAN ARMSTRONG, CO-FOUNDER & CEO COINBASE

In short, the SEC isn’t protecting investors or promoting fair & safe markets. Based on the thread, this seems to be intimidation tactics and a power grab. It is more accurate in saying they are preventing new entrants to the market than actually protecting current investors.

This isn’t the only regulatory FUD as we see regulators in Hong Kong clamping down on the asset class. This isn’t new, in May, regulators in HK proposed limiting access to crypto to those with portfolios larger than $1 million. This would effectively cut off access to 93% of the population. Since then, multiple exchanges have halted or limited trading activity in HK.


When looking at the total crypto market cap, we can see a max drawdown of roughly 17% as nearly the entire market collapsed. A few standout names that held up well and/or continued to make new highs : Solana and it’s ecosystem, Near and Algorand.

CHARTS.COINTRADER.PRO

DeFi, Social Media and NFT’s remain attractive as we see the healthy cleanse of leverage. Centralised exchanges like Kraken also had down time yesterday whereas decentralised exchanges remained functional – This is bullish.

Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi fell around 25% however recovered sharply. It appears crypto-asset TVL has fallen and stablecoin TVL has increased with an exception to a few protocols. It will be interesting to see how this trend develops.

DEFIPULSE

Overall we saw BTC outflows from exchanges with illiquid supply increasing and long term hodl’ers increasing their holdings. The trend is likely to take some time to recover and consolidate before the next leg up. To stay up to date with the market moves & for more articles like the one above, subscribe to our blog.

INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 6 SEPTEMBER 2021

Strong week for technology stocks in the U.S equities market as NASDAQ, the Dow Jones and S&P500 closed the week out at +1.45%, -0.3% and +0.53% respectively.

Last week’s main theme was the release of Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) data points, which left investors disappointed. Only 235 000 jobs were created in August which allowed stocks to pullback slightly before finding one last push to close the week out. Not everything was disappointing as the Unemployment Rate fell from 5.4% to 5.2% which is a slight improvement in the job market. The play on equities is slightly confusing at the moment. Weaker NFP data usually relates to a greater chance of asset tapering deadline being pushed back which means more liquidity for longer i.e positive for stocks. But this can also be seen as a negative as it shows signs of a slowdown in economic recovery. That being said, it seems the only way stocks are going is UP. Even if a pullback is required before we see that.

In terms of risk events this week, investors will be eyeing job openings data on Wednesday following the disappointing NFP results. We also have Jobless Claims and PPI on Thursday and Friday respectively. This should bring some liquidity to the market for this week, as we have Labour Day today in the US at the time of writing.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NASDAQ from a technical perspective, we are once again at new all time highs at the time of writing. Last week came in the form of a lot of consolidation, but this was most likely due to the fact that investors were waiting for NFP data. Fundamentals look bullish for stocks at the moment, but with the recent bullish momentum we’ve seen on NAS, it is still susceptible to profit taking on a large scale. Should we see said pullback, for the week ahead, immediate support is offered around the $15 600 region followed by the psychological level of $15 500. Should bears manage to pull price back that far, the next point of interest would be the prior week low which could also act as support going forward.

NASDAQ 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

$35 500 remains strong resistance for the Dow. On six previous occasions last week, price failed to breach this level. Should the bears continue to hold this level, we could expect one last pullback on the Dow before seeing further upside into the $36 000 level. Key areas of interest for the week ahead includes the ascending trendline stemming from lows throughout July and August and the psychological level of $35 000. With the current fundamental backdrop for equities, I believe new highs could be seen in the near future.

DOW JONES DAILY TIMEFRAME

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INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 30 AUGUST 2021

U.S Equities once again trading at new All Time Highs after a hawkish Jackson Hole Symposium. NASDAQ and the Dow Jones both closed the week out at +2.2% and +0.97% respectively.

The main culprit of last week’s bullish action looks to be the approval of the Pfizer vaccine by the FDA. The Corona virus continues to spread in various parts of the world and with the ongoing talk about tapering asset purchases, this could be the driver of a reduction in liquidity in the market. The Central Bank is likely to scale back their bond buying program by the end of this year, but remains patient to implement interest rate hikes. Last week saw the DXY pull back alongside the 10 Year Treasury Yields, showing the market is well prepared for tapering.

All eyes were on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium which delivered a hawkish-biased message from Jerome Powell. The essence of his speech was that the central bank will start tapering the $120 million per month bond buying program. He also emphasized that interest rate hikes will not follow after tapering. All of this equates to an ultra-low interest rate environment here to stay, and this in turn benefits Technology stocks. All in all, the speech soothed some market fear and boosted market confidence.

In terms of risk events this week, we have quite a full calendar with a few high risk events scheduled to take place. Investors will mainly be eyeing NFP data on Friday as well as the Unemployment Rate to continue tracking the rate of job recovery as well as overall market recovery. Consumer Confidence and ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, will also bring liquidity to the equities market.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NAS from a technical aspect, new all time highs have been achieved. Last week’s fundamental backdrop was enough to propel NAS above previous consolidation with price looking to target the $15 500 level before profit taking occurs on an institutional level. The fundamental backdrop of NAS is bullish, “Buy The Dip” is going to be adopted once again. For longer term traders, the first levels of immediate support comes in around the $15 100 region as well the psychological level of $15 000 where price could once again turn to find new highs.

NASDAQ 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

The Dow rejected the $35 500 level twice last week with it currently trading around that region at the time of writing. Should $35 500 hold as resistance in coming sessions, we could see sustained bearish momentum on the Dow until around the $35k region where we could see the ascending trendline come into play once again. Should $35 500 be broken, we can anticipate price to continue climbing potentially into $36 000 according to the -0.27 Fib Extension level.

DOW JONES DAILY TIMEFRAME

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USOIL – RENEWED INFLATION FEARS?

At the beginning of July, we provided our students with an outlook on Oil & the transitory inflation stance. With the FED continuously stating that inflation is transitory, we expected a cool down in oil prices. The OPEC discussing increases in oil supply issuance set the stage for a pullback.

6 JULY FORECAST

Since then, we’ve seen a +-16% decline in oil prices. In August, we saw Biden requesting an increase in oil production from OPEC, to counter rising gasoline prices. This saw massive push back from 24 Republican senators on the controversial discussion, as Biden asks other countries to increase production while the administration is asking American oil companies (under tight environmental restrictions) to do less.

USOIL MONTHLY

Taking a look at the oil monthly on a logarithmic chart, we see a major trend line test originating from 2008.

Crude oil inventories is set to release at 4:30pm SAST. It will be interesting to see if supply increases similar to what we saw at the beginning of the month.

AUGUST US CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES DATA

Staying on the inflation narrative, many investors have been monitoring the 10 year bond yields, following inflation expectations. An interesting point to observe is that Oil followed the US10Y, however lagging by a few months. Once the 10Y broke structure below 1.40, we saw outflows simultaneously from Oil, forming a peak.

USOIL SIDE BY SIDE WITH US10Y

The 10Y yields peaked on the 30th of March whereas Oil peaked on the 6th of July. My thought process around this is that as yields continued to rise, investors built up more fear around sticky inflation, seeing a rotation of capital into Oil. Once we broke structure on yields, capital outflows were observed.

Starting the week, oil has had a strong bounce, now sitting at last week’s open, as well as US10Y formed a rounded bottom, seeing a 3.8% rise this week. Above 1.40%, anticipate further inflation fears to mount. Below 1.20%, anticipate a drop towards 1.10%.

USOIL DAILY

Looking back at the daily timeframe, we can see the significant support found at $62. Currently we are floating around the 78.6% fibonacci as well as March highs. Should we close above $68, I anticipate $69.50 to be breached, breaking structure to the upside towards $71.50. The higher low could be in, however an old saying goes “Never buy the first bounce” – I will be looking for clearer price action to confirm the switch back to bullish, $55 is not off the cards just yet. I personally, am leaning towards further downside.

Apart from the US oil inventories today & the decision of OPEC increasing supply issuance, the House passed a $3.5T budget bill in a 220-212 vote as well as an advanced $1T infrastructure bill. It is key to note that these figures will likely change as the GOP argue this would increase inflation while the White House disputes this.

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INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 23 AUGUST 2021

Another “Buy The Dip” week in the markets last week as we once again saw US equities trading near their All Time Highs to close out Friday. NASDAQ, the Dow Jones and S&P500 all closed at -0.21%, -1.06% and -0.53% respectively.

Last week looked to be the beginning of a retracement in the equities market, before investors bought everything up on Friday. Last week started off on a dull note in the markets with various countries still being affected by the Delta variant despite millions being vaccinated. Last week’s FOMC Meeting Minutes signaled that a majority of Fed members support an idea to scale back the $120 billion per month asset purchasing by the end of this year although economic data shows signs of slowing economic recovery. The current theme within the markets seems to be a mixture of tapering, economic growth, Delta variant concerns as well as a market that is overstretched after months of outperformance.

This week, investors will be eyeing the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for clues on the Fed’s move with regards to tapering. Jerome Powell will also be in focus as he is expected to officially announce the tapering of asset purchases at this meeting. If Powell continues to pushes back on tapering talks, then we could see stocks getting a bit of a boost and correcting this past week’s losses. Investors will also be eyeing GDP as well as Jobless Claims data releasing on Thursday.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

Looking at NASDAQ technically, we can see we had that bearish momentum at the start of last week before investors bought the dip up. We had that bullish reversal around the 61.8 Fib retracement level and price has simply climbed from there, currently trading near All Time Highs at the time of writing. Should price continue in this fashion, the first area of potential resistance it will come into is the prior All Time High. Breaching this level opens up room for a move even higher into the $15 350 region according to our Fib tool. This will all depend on the fundamental backdrop of this week with the Jackson Hole symposium as well as other risk events.

NASDAQ DAILY TIMEFRAME

Similarly on the Dow Jones, we see that same reversal to the upside around the ascending trendline stemming from Daily lows as well the 50% Fib retracement level. At the time of writing, price is approaching those All Time Highs around that $35 500 region with it currently looming as potential resistance. Should price manage to clear, we would look to see continued bullish momentum targeting 36k. Again, this will all be dependent on what this week’s fundamental backdrop looks like.

DOW JONES DAILY TIMEFRAME

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INDICES MARKET OUTLOOK – 16 AUGUST 2021

The indices market ended last week mainly upbeat with NASDAQ, Dow Jones and S&P500 closing at +0.18%, +0.81% and +0.94% respectively.

Last week’s moves higher could be due to consumer sentiment data showing that economic recovery may be slowing down. A deteriorating consumer sentiment may give the Fed more reason to stay put amid rising inflationary pressures. Last week also saw the US 10 Year Treasury Yields slowly climbing back into the 1.3% – 1.4% region. This move boosted cyclical stocks i.e Dow Jones.

US 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS

In terms of risk events this week, investors will be paying close attention to Retail Sales data, FOMC Minutes as well as Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday. Powell could simply reiterate his cautious approach on the economy while FOMC Minutes could continue reinforcing the central bank’s broad confidence in the medium-term economic outlook. That being said, it could be enough to fuel the Dow Jones to outperform NASDAQ in weeks to come with Quantitative Easing still going strong at $120 billion a month.

FUNDAMENTALS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

As mentioned in last week’s market outlook, the “Buy The Dip” mentality was adopted as investors bought up any dips in NASDAQ. We saw a move to the upside as the psychological level of $15 000 held as support in line with the ascending trendline acting as dynamic support as well. For the week ahead, with fundamentals for stocks being bullish, a pullback would be perfect to accumulate more long positions. One more drive in $15 000 could be possible as it lines up with that previous level of support as well as the 78.6% Fib retracement level. Any closures below the 100% Fib level would invalidate bullish momentum for the time being.

NASDAQ 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

Last week saw the Dow Jones find new All Time Highs after trading sideways for the past few weeks most likely due to the climb in Treasury Yields. Same approach will be applied to the Dow. Buy any dips. As mentioned earlier, with QE still going strong, this gives cyclical stocks the upper hand. Technically, a pullback from the All Time Highs could provide decent risk to reward setups to go long. This week’s focus will be the psychological level of $35 000 as it lines up roughly with the previous consolidation block as well as our 61/78.6 Fib levels. With the fundamentals this week, be weary of dips further into $34 800 or the ascending trendline potentially. Do not catch a falling knife. Wait for clear reversals before entering positions.

DOW JONES 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

As always traders, exercise healthy risk management and we hope you have a fantastic trading week ahead. For more updates like the one above, subscribe to our blog for instant updates to your mail or join our Telegram Trading Floor via our website at http://www.aspirefx.co.za.